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Dhanteras is traditionally associated with prosperity and good fortune, and many investors use this auspicious occasion to add yellow metal or gold-linked instruments to their portfolios.

Commodity experts now estimate that gold may surge 30–40 percent in one year, or at least 20 percent by Dhanteras 2027.

“Guessing short-term movement in prices can be tricky, but in the long term, say one year, prices may rise by 30-40 percent,” Surendra Mehta, Secretary of India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), said.

Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer at Augmont, estimates that MCX gold may surge roughly to Rs 1,75,000 by Diwali 2027, up 20 percent from the current price of Rs 1.45 lakh per 10 grams, or near $4,950 internationally.

“These targets imply the ratio easing to about 67. In India, the rupee near 94.5 and the 15% import duty should keep domestic prices firm,” Chainani said.

She believes that gold will continue its rebound and long-term bull run, supported by the following bullish factors.

First, official buying continues. Central banks added 321t in Q3, up 42 percent year-on-year, while gold ETF holdings reached a record 4,256t. Second, lower oil prices after the US midterms could ease inflation and let the Fed shift from hiking to cutting in 2027. That would pull down yields and the dollar.

Third, silver’s supply gap persists, with the market heading for a sixth straight annual deficit. Fourth, the gold-silver ratio at 78 leaves room for silver to catch up. The risks are real. Sticky US inflation, more Fed hikes, or a stronger rupee could delay the rally, and silver could swing harder either way.

Those who invested on Dhanteras 2016 and held on to their investments until November 5, 2026, would have earned an annualised return of 18.30 percent, as gold prices surged more than 377 percent over the decade.

How Dhanteras gold buying created wealth over 10 years

Someone who bought gold at around Rs 30,590 per 10 grams in Delhi on Dhanteras 2016 would have seen their investment grow nearly 4.77 times, to about Rs 1,45,915 per 10 grams today. Similarly, a Rs 1 lakh investment in gold on Dhanteras 2016 would have grown nearly 4.77 times to approximately Rs 4.77 lakh by November 3, 2026.

Here's how gold prices have moved over the past decade, up to November 5, 2026, a day ahead of Dhanteras, which falls on Friday, November 6, this year.