Iran War Set to Drive A Drop in Global Fossil Fuel Emissions in 2026

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to drop by 0.4% in 2026 from a year earlier, due to the oil shock from the Iran war and increased solar and wind power generation, new research by the Global Carbon Project showed on Tuesday.

The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tons of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, down by 0.4% from last year, amid a slump in emissions from oil as a result of the Hormuz trade and energy price shock, the scientists behind the project said.

“Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9% – likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict,” the scientists wrote in the research.

Emissions from natural gas are set to decline by 0.3%, while emissions from coal are on track to rise by 0.6% from last year, as the Hormuz crisis is curbing LNG trade amid soaring prices, which many countries, especially in Asia, are compensating for with higher coal-fired power generation.

However, the report by the Global Carbon Project finds that “clean energy growth is not yet fast enough for a durable decline in global fossil CO2 emissions,” said the researchers, who warn that this year’s decline doesn’t mean fossil fuel emissions have peaked.

“A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change,” said Glen Peters, Research Professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

“Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions”.

The report was published a day after the two-week COP31 climate summit began in Antalya, Turkey, with a call from UN leaders who urged governments to move faster on climate change mitigation efforts.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com