The upcoming Samvat will remain as challenging for the markets as Samvat 2082 unless crude prices cool off and bond yields ease, analysts caution.

Deepak KorgaonkarPuneet Wadhwa Mumbai | New Delhi

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The Sensex and Nifty 50 are set to report their worst Samvat performance in past 15 years due to a sharp sell-off by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) driven by higher crude oil prices, rising US bond yields amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict in West Asia.

Thus far in Samvat 2082, the Sensex and Nifty 50 have slipped 8.4 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively. However, Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 which gained 4.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively, have outperformed during the year.

Earlier, in Samvat 2067, the benchmark indices tanked 17 per cent, while Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices plunged 28 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively, data shows.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), meanwhile, sold Rs 3.03 trillion ($32.36 billion) worth of Indian equities during the Samvat 2082. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), on the other hand, made a net inflow of Rs 7.74 trillion.

The upcoming Samvat will remain as challenging for the markets as Samvat 2082 unless crude prices cool off and bond yields ease, analysts caution.

“If oil cools down, it would greatly benefit the markets, especially the large-caps where most of the foreign selling has happened. Until the West Asia crisis nears a solution, the Indian markets will remain under pressure,” said U R Bhat, co-founder & director, Alphaniti Fintech.

In the short-to-medium term G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, too, expects the economy and the markets to remain under pressure.

"Investors have to watch oil prices closely and, consequently, the rupee exchange rate. There are liquidity concerns as well in the backdrop of the booming primary market. A correction in small-and mid-cap stocks could lead to a slowdown in IPOs going ahead," he said.

Broader markets

Meanwhile, out of the Nifty 500 stocks, a total of 287 stocks, or 57 per cent recorded negative returns in Samvat 2082. Of these 287 stocks, as many as 140 saw their market price decline by more than 20 per cent.

However, 17 stocks from the Nifty 500 saw their market value more than double. A total of 28 stocks’ market value appreciated in the range of 50 per cent to 93 per cent, and, 50 others saw price gains between 25 per cent and 49 per cent.

Among sectors, stocks of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies were the worst performers, with the Nifty FMCG index slipping 18.3 per cent during Samvat 2082. The Nifty IT slipped 9.2 per cent, followed by Nifty Realty index (down 7.8 per cent), Nifty Bank (3.7 per cent) and Nifty Auto (2.5 per cent).

However, Capital Goods, PSU Bank and Metal indices recorded positive returns for the sixth straight year. In Samvat 2082, these indices rallied in the range of 6 per cent to 22 per cent.

For Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager, INVasset PMS, the four major catalysts that could work well for Indian equities in the next Samvat include any easing US-Iran tensions that brings crude prices under control, a reversal of the crowded global AI trade triggering FII rotation back into Indian equities, a possible India-US trade deal, and potential relief on long-term capital gains taxation for foreign investors.

“We believe the Nifty and large-caps may have already formed a meaningful bottom. Prefer large-caps over mid-and small-caps, with opportunities in financials and other reasonably valued domestic businesses. The opportunity is emerging, but global liquidity will determine how quickly it plays out,” Garg said.

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First Published: Nov 05 2026 | 7:15 AM IST