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Against this backdrop, BJP insiders explain two recent developments: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent phone call to Pawar when he was admitted to a hospital in Pune, and Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s meeting with an NCP delegation in Delhi Monday.

Countering Congress

With the Congress increasingly asserting itself politically, the BJP believes regional parties have assumed greater significance. This has also fuelled speculation about a possible merger between the two NCP factions, even as the BJP recognises that the final decision rests with Pawar.

“In politics, nothing is static. The fresh delimitation and women’s reservation Bills remain high on the Centre’s agenda. To achieve this, every party and MP would count. Issue-based support from ideological opponents also works. This is the loud and clear message the BJP leadership has subtly conveyed to the NCP that its interests will not be compromised,” a senior BJP leader said.

Highly placed BJP sources said the NCP (SP), with eight Lok Sabha MPs, remains an important political outfit. They added that, in Maharashtra, strengthening regional parties to counter the Congress’s growing assertion has become a “strategic necessity” for the party.

The BJP’s counter-campaign, including its “save democracy” protests against the Congress’s allegations of irregularities involving the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and “vote chori”, has had limited appeal among voters, sources said.

The BJP central dispensation, they added, has encouraged the party-ruled state governments to reach out to every party, setting aside ideological differences, to consolidate the numbers required to secure the two-thirds majority in Parliament for the proposed legislation.

In the special session earlier this year, the BJP failed to secure the requisite numbers, with 298 MPs voting in favour of the legislation and 230 against it in the Lok Sabha.

The BJP’s official position is that it is willing to engage with all parties to ensure the passage of the Bills. On the NCP factions’ merger possibility, however, the party has maintained, “Ultimately, it is for NCP president Sunetra Pawar and NCP(SP) chief Sharad Pawar to take a final decision,” a BJP leader said, indicating that his party would encourage their merger.

Pawar-BJP ‘bonhomie’

Beyond the calculations surrounding alliances and a possible merger, BJP managers also point to the long-standing equation between Modi and Pawar.

The Prime Minister’s proposed visit to Baramati on November 3 to inaugurate the newly developed Prerna Sthal was postponed. Yugendra Pawar of the NCP (SP) has indicated that November 16 is being considered as a possible date, subject to confirmation from the PMO.

Despite being on opposing sides of the political divide, Modi and Pawar have maintained cordial relations. Their parties have fought bitter electoral battles, but the personal relationship between the two leaders has endured.

Modi’s phone call to Pawar in hospital to enquire about his health and advise him to rest was thus not seen in the BJP as unusual.

Supriya Sule factor

What reportedly surprised some BJP leaders, however, was the statement by Vitthal Maniar, a close family friend of Pawar, that the PM had advised Sharad Pawar to rest and said his daughter Supriya Sule would take care of the country.

“Lok Sabha MP Supriya Sule is the political heir of the NCP (SP). It was both natural and factual. She is also her party’s working president,” a BJP source said.

Sule has been active in electoral politics since 2006, when she contested the Rajya Sabha elections. She resigned from the Upper House after being elected to the Lok Sabha in 2009. Before being fielded from Baramati for the Lok Sabha elections that year, she had undertaken organisational work at the grassroots level. Since then, she has built her political profile as a parliamentarian while remaining involved in the NCP (SP) affairs.

Acknowledging internal differences within the NCP over the style of functioning and the role of Sunetra’s son Parth Pawar, BJP sources said it was for the party leadership to work out a mechanism to ensure its smooth functioning, adding that the BJP could only play an “advisory role”.

MLC poll setback

The NCP (SP)’s ability to win both the Legislative Council seats in Pune and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar has come as a setback for the BJP. The party has acknowledged that Pawar played the “spoiler” in the Council polls, including in the Nagpur Graduates’ constituency.

Given Pawar’s “political unpredictability”, the BJP has adopted a wait-and-watch approach amid the recent developments.

Senior NCP leaders visited Pawar in hospital in Mumbai. This was followed by Shiv Sena chief and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde visiting Pawar, although he clarified this was only meant to enquire about the latter’s health. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis also spoke to Pawar to enquire about his well-being. Amid these developments, the changing position of NCP state president Sunil Tatkare on the merger question has also created a buzz in the BJP circles. After Ajit Pawar’s demise, Tatkare had dismissed speculation about a merger as baseless. His subsequent remarks lending credence to the possibility have surprised many.

BJP insiders interpret the shift as reflecting growing restlessness among senior NCP leaders seeking to regain their organisational standing. They also believe that elected representatives within the party will look for a credible leadership arrangement ahead of the 2029 elections.