It is the final day in Paris, as the last ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2026 season is set to conclude on Championship Sunday. A blockbuster clash awaits, with Carlos Alcaraz taking on Ben Shelton for the title on the Parisian indoor hard courts. As always, we here at LWOT will provide an in-depth prediction for the final, but who do you think will come out on top?

ATP Paris Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton

Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-1 Shelton

What was a stacked draw in Paris just under a week ago has now been reduced to two competitors. Fresh off their thrilling five-set quarterfinal at the US Open, Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton once again stand across the net from each other, this time in a final.

Although Shelton came out on top in New York two months ago, Alcaraz still has the stylistic edge in this matchup. The American relies heavily on his elite serve and physical game, but Alcaraz can not only match Shelton physically but also possesses arguably the best return game in tennis right now. The faster courts in Paris this week also suggest that sets will likely be decided by a few pressure moments, and the Spaniard remains one of the most clutch players in tennis, having already saved a match point on his way to the final.

Shelton has been quite inconsistent since his run to the US Open final, but just when some felt the American might be fatigued at the end of a gruelling season, he has bounced back with a solid run in Paris. He has reached the final after coming through multiple tightly contested three-set matches. In his four matches so far at this event, Shelton has hit a remarkable 60 aces, and he will need plenty more if he wants to win the title on Sunday.

Ultimately, this match comes down to whether Shelton can once again hold his own from the baseline against Alcaraz’s seemingly unlimited array of weapons. Alcaraz will surely make enough returns to test the American, while Shelton himself can make some inroads on the Spaniard’s serve if he has an off day. However, in a match that will likely be decided by a few key moments, Alcaraz remains one of the best big-match players in tennis. With a superior baseline game and the motivation to exact revenge for what happened at the US Open, expect Alcaraz to win his ninth career Masters 1000 title.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 2

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images