It's now just two weeks until the Salesforce FIDE World Championship 2026 sees GM Javokhir Sindarov take on World Champion Gukesh Dommaraju for the most important title in chess. On the eve of that showdown in Geneva, we look at some of the predictions from the chess world, including 13th World Champion Garry Kasparov favoring Gukesh slightly, while GM Hikaru Nakamura predicts Sindarov winning "very cleanly."

On paper, the reigning world champion, Gukesh, faces a daunting task in the upcoming match. He's currently 26th in the world, the lowest ranking of a player in a world championship match ever, and 22 spots and 72 rating points behind the challenger, Sindarov.

Rating/Ranking Gap Before World Championship Matches

The lowest a player has been ranked and still won the title since it was unified in 2008 is fifth in the world.

Nevertheless, title matches are unlike anything else in chess, and GM Ding Liren was one late blunder away from forcing tiebreaks against 55-point and 18-place-higher-ranked Gukesh in 2024. Gukesh himself had the best 2024 of any player in the world and as recently as 18 months ago was world number-three, so it would be foolish to doubt the 20-year-old's potential.

Let's look at some of the predictions heading into the match.

Garry Kasparov

Kasparov was recently in Antwerp, Belgium to give a simultaneous exhibition as part of Your Next Move 2026, during which he gave a press conference, as reported by Sportinantwerpen. Kasparov referred to earlier comments about Gukesh's struggles since winning the title, saying, "Like Magnus Carlsen, I was fiercely critical of him, and that criticism still stands."

He added, however:

As far as I can judge, Sindarov provides more entertainment, but experience is important. And Dommaraju has that. You can hardly beat him. That is why I give him a slightly better chance. It is not important how long you prepare for a match; experience is usually the deciding factor.

It is not important how long you prepare for a match; experience is usually the deciding factor.

—Garry Kasparov

Kasparov reflected on Gukesh's seven wins and one loss at the FIDE Chess Olympiad in Samarkand:

He didn't make a good impression at the Olympiad, but now it's about a match against a single player. That's completely different. Expectations are high. He is a more defensive player—compare it to a tennis player who doesn't come off the baseline. But you never know, if Sindarov takes the lead, he might just be able to beat him.

A counter-argument was provided by the world number-two.

Hikaru Nakamura

During commentary on round five of the recent U.S. Championships, Nakamura was asked who would win the world championship. He gave a 45-second response, beginning:

I think that if I look at it objectively, I struggle to see Sindarov not winning. I want a close match, but I think most likely the result we're going to get is a match where Sindarov wins very cleanly, like Magnus did against Anand in 2013.

I think most likely the result we're going to get is a match where Sindarov wins very cleanly, like Magnus did against Anand in 2013.

—Hikaru Nakamura

He did add, however:

I think if it’s a close match, Gukesh will actually win, but I don’t think it’s going to be a close match. There’s nothing in Gukesh’s games in the last year and a half that makes me believe that he’s going to suddenly play at a much higher level.

Nakamura and Sindarov spent some time in the same hotel in Cyprus recently.

When they were previously in Cyprus it was for the Candidates Tournament, and many of the opinions the International Chess Federation (FIDE) recently gathered together came shortly after that event.

Notably, Nakamura himself had more hope for Gukesh at the time:

I think if Gukesh can find the form he found in the match and the tournaments leading up to it, he’ll win, and I think as long as he works on the mental aspects and he’s able to drown out the noise, I think he’s going to surprise people.

Among the other views expressed, French GMs Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Alireza Firouzja both stated 50:50 as their prediction, while IM Levy Rozman gave 55:45 to Sindarov. Sindarov was the clear favorite, given the edge, however slight, by GMs Anish Giri, Divya Deshmukh, Faustino Oro, Juan Manuel Bellon Lopez, as well as WFM Anna Cramling.

Anna's mother GM Pia Cramling opted for Gukesh, but explained "because I've played him," while GM Viswanathan Anand, who did some work for Gukesh before the previous match, mentioned "I'll root for Gukesh." Andrea Botez also chose the Indian reigning champion.

GM Fabiano Caruana, who tied GM Magnus Carlsen in classical chess in the 2018 World Championship match, didn't go against the prevailing opinion, but did explain he expects things to be close:

I should say Javokhir. Of course after this [Candidates] result and his form is so good, but I don’t think it’ll be easy. I know that people are putting very high odds on him because he’s super-hot at the moment. Gukesh is having a rough period, but I still think it’ll be very close.

We got a similar view from another strong and experienced player.

Peter Svidler

GM Peter Svidler was asked after Gukesh scored 8.5/11 at the Olympiad, with only a last-round loss denying him a third individual gold medal in a row. The eight-time Russian champion commented, "Winning games of chess is what makes you feel better about yourself, and he won a great number here."

When Svidler was asked about how the players' styles compared, he pointed out, "people who reach this level are pretty much always universals," before noting that chess has changed with the computer. He explained:

Their formative years were spent working with computers and that, I think, very much changes how they view the game, because if there's one thing that computers teach you forcefully, time and time again, it is that a lot more is affordable, a lot more is defensible, a lot more is possible if you can just calculate really, really cleanly. It’s a lot more natural to them to play dynamic chess than it is to play positional chess. They’re still universals, but I think they're slightly less universal than the previous generations because of the amount of work they do with computers from a very early age.

Svidler, a Hearthstone fanatic, is heartened by Sindarov's love of Counter-Strike:

I know a little bit about the approach of this current crop of Indian youngsters to video games. There is not going to be any Counter-Strike on that side of the equation, I can pretty much guarantee that. As for Javokhir, it was very gratifying and a happy moment for me when I realized he is a fellow gamer, and I do hope he maintains some sort of work-life balance and then does well, because that would sort of retrospectively slightly justify my life choices.

I do hope he maintains some sort of work-life balance and then does well, because that would sort of retrospectively slightly justify my life choices.

—Peter Svidler on Javokhir Sindarov

As for the players' chances and whether it was 60:40 for Sindarov, Svidler responded:

For these matches, 60 is already very high. Even with the kind of a year and a half Gukesh has had I don’t think going higher than 55 is justifiable. He's still a very strong player, it's still a very specific format, so I'm kind of willing to go 55:45 Sindarov, but I don't think I'm willing to go higher.

That brings us to an Indian player who Svidler has seconded in the Candidates.

Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu

GM Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu and Gukesh obviously get on very well, which has provoked questions about whether they're collaborating for the match.

We'll probably only get confirmation when it's over, but Praggnanandhaa is another player to put the odds for who'll win at 50:50. In an interview with Chess.com he gave two factors that work in Gukesh's favor. The first was how quickly things can change in chess.

I honestly think it's 50:50. I don't think there's any one massive favorite. Obviously Gukesh's form hasn't been the best, but it's always one tournament, or even one game, to get that confidence and form back. Even for me—if you had seen me till Norway round six, I think everyone would be saying Pragg is not in great shape, and then four days later I won the tournament. So it's always a few games, or just one game, to get that confidence, and then we all know what Gukesh is capable of—he's really shown it at the top level.

We all know what Gukesh is capable of—he's really shown it at the top level.

—Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu

The other is the pressure of playing your first title match.

And for Javokhir as well—the first few games in a World Championship match, everyone knows how much pressure it is, but no one has actually experienced it, so it will be a new experience for him, and that's also going to play a role.

One player who does know all there is to know about playing such matches is the world number-one.

Magnus Carlsen

After Sindarov won the Candidates, Carlsen was asked who would win the match and, on a big screen in Sweden, replied "at the moment it's impossible not to say Sindarov."

He elaborated: "Gukesh has very, very obvious weaknesses when it comes to his understanding, and Sindarov does not in the same way. He’s a lot more well-rounded."

Gukesh has very, very obvious weaknesses when it comes to understanding, and Sindarov does not in the same way.

—Magnus Carlsen

During the Tech Mahindra Global Chess League, Carlsen returned to the topic. The Norwegian said of Gukesh, "He’s a very good player, he had a fantastic 2024, one of the best years that anybody’s ever had," but feels Sindarov is a "pretty significant favorite."

He noted Gukesh "doesn't find it easy to just switch gears," and has often been punished for his ambition:

I don’t think it’s a secret to most people that his evaluations are way too optimistic. That kind of makes him take way more chances than he should. I think especially now that his confidence hasn't been too high, he just tries to do a little bit too much.

Will Gukesh tone down his style for the match, or will he manage to make it work when it matters most? Who do you think will win?