The extramarital affair scandal engulfing Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang continues to widen, with the board having met to discuss his future and market bets on his fate surging rapidly. On prediction market platforms, not only did the probability of "removal before year-end" briefly surge above 80%, but "who will be the next CEO" has also become a hot trading subject—with former Apple CEO Tim Cook's name appearing prominently among the candidates, his odds of taking over at Nvidia briefly spiking to 91% before sharply retreating to around 10%.
As of the 12th, data from prediction market platform Kalshi showed Cook's probability of becoming Nvidia CEO at about 10%. That figure had surged to 91% roughly a day earlier before rapidly converging. Market discussion of this pairing began with a series of social media posts in the tech community in recent days. Tech journalist Alex Kantrowitz posted on a social platform on Wednesday, stating bluntly: "Tim Cook as Nvidia's next CEO? Possible. CNBC just discussed it."
Another source of this speculation was comments by Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman during a television interview. He argued that to replace someone of Huang's caliber, Nvidia "needs to find its own Tim Cook"—a remark some market participants directly interpreted as naming Cook himself, causing sharp swings in the betting market within a short period.
Another key source of serious market discussion about Cook was an op-ed by Yale School of Management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld published in Time magazine on the 11th. He argued that if Nvidia were to look externally for a successor, Cook and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt are two obvious candidates: after succeeding Steve Jobs in 2011, Cook grew Apple's market value from about $350 billion to $4 trillion, and his years of handling Asian supply chains and U.S.-China relations are precisely the experience Nvidia most needs. After 15 years at the helm of Apple, Cook handed over to John Ternus in September this year and transitioned to Apple's executive chairman, lightening his workload and giving outsiders more room for imagination. However, there is currently no indication that Nvidia has approached Cook, and Nvidia's board has not announced any formal succession plan.
Internal Technical vs. Financial Route Showdown
Compared with Cook's dramatic rise and fall, the betting market's real heavy bets remain on Nvidia insiders. In Polymarket's "Next NVIDIA CEO" market, Vice President Ian Buck, who oversees hyperscale computing and high-performance computing operations, leads at 30%, with CFO Colette Kress close behind at 26.5%—the two together exceeding 50%. Kalshi's quotes show Buck at about 42% and Kress at about 27%, with consistent rankings.
PlatformIan BuckColette KressTim CookLisa SuPolymarket30%26.5%—About 1%Kalshi42%27%10% (briefly 91%)—
Note: Quotes as of November 12; "—" indicates no corresponding quote was available from that platform at the time of publication.
Buck is the inventor of CUDA technology. After earning a Ph.D. in computer science from Stanford University in 2004, he joined Nvidia and has long been devoted to general-purpose GPU computing technology, making him a key technical figure in driving Nvidia's expansion from graphics chips into AI computing. He currently oversees hardware and software products for hyperscale AI computing, works closely with major players including Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and OpenAI, has testified before the U.S. Congress on artificial intelligence issues, and has provided AI policy advice to the White House.
Kress joined Nvidia in 2013, having previously held long-term positions at Microsoft, Cisco and Texas Instruments. She is responsible for corporate financial management, capital allocation and investor communications. Market sources indicate that some Nvidia directors favor appointing her as interim CEO if necessary. With one being a technical core and the other a financial heavyweight, the succession betting market has formed a competition between two different routes.
Other named candidates include AMD CEO Lisa Su, Arm CEO Rene Haas, and Huang's daughter Madison Huang and son Spencer Huang. However, on Polymarket, Su's betting probability is only about 1%.
Departure Probability and Divergent Analyst Views
In the prediction market for "whether Jensen Huang will announce resignation or be removed before December 31," the probability of "yes" reached 85%, with trading volume of about $3.58 million (approximately NT$120 million); the option with a November 30 deadline also showed an 82% probability.
This figure shows a clear gap with the judgments of some Wall Street analysts. Prominent tech analyst Dan Ives recently estimated the probability of Huang being removed at about 15%—in other words, there is still an 85% chance he keeps his position; he also estimated that if Huang does leave, Nvidia shares could fall another 25% to 30%. However, by the 12th, Ives' public comments had shifted to saying Nvidia "probably now has to move forward without Jensen Huang." Analysts' subjective assessments and prediction market trading prices are fundamentally different and cannot be directly treated as the same probability statistic, but as the event escalates, analysts' views are beginning to converge toward the market.
Brokerages are also adjusting their views:
InstitutionLatest Action or ViewWells FargoCut target price from $315 to $300, maintained "Overweight" ratingBank of AmericaRemoved Nvidia from "US 1" top pick listBernsteinCalled espionage allegations "more form than substance," but still flagged key-person risk
Note: Compiled from various institutional reports in early November.
Nvidia's board has launched an independent investigation because the reports involve foreign intelligence activities and risks to company secrets, and has hired outside counsel to help clarify the matter, while emphasizing that there is currently no reason to believe U.S. national security or company secrets have been compromised. The board's statement on the 8th said: "The board has confidence in Jensen Huang and his leadership team." Independent directors further announced on the 10th that former Acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Joon H. Kim would lead the independent investigation.
But The Wall Street Journal reported on the 11th that the board is preparing to remove Huang; multiple foreign media outlets subsequently reported that the board had met to discuss the personnel matter but had not yet announced a decision. Under Nvidia's bylaws, a majority vote of directors is sufficient to remove the CEO with or without cause; Nvidia has 11 directors, all of whom except Huang are considered independent, and Huang holds about 3.6% of shares with no dual-class share structure, leaving his fate in the board's hands. Nvidia has about 60 senior executives reporting directly to the CEO and has long had no public succession plan, making it harder for outsiders to assess a post-Huang Nvidia. Republican Senator Kevin Cramer has publicly called for Huang to resign; U.S. President Trump said the FBI is investigating the matter but believes Huang "will be fine," praising him for "doing a fantastic job."
Share Price Under Pressure, Supply Chain Watching Closely
The market reaction has been reflected in the share price. Nvidia shares fell 7% this week and may post a sixth consecutive weekly decline. In Wednesday's regular trading session, the stock closed up 2.92% at $173.73, but plunged 8.61% after hours. Technical ratings also show that Nvidia's short-, medium- and long-term trends are all weak. In terms of market value, Nvidia ended October 6 with a market capitalization of about $5.78 trillion, but by midday on November 10 had fallen to about $4.04 trillion—equivalent to roughly $1.7 trillion, or nearly 30% of market value, wiped out; even just since the board announced its investigation on the 8th, if the after-hours decline holds, market value would shrink by about $685 billion. Separately, shareholders filed a class-action lawsuit in California federal court, alleging that Nvidia and Huang made misleading statements about his relationship with Alice Huang and dealings with Megaspeed.
The storm has also transmitted to Asian markets. Under pressure from the Nvidia personnel turmoil and profit-taking after recent sharp gains, Taiwan's weighted stock index closed down 1,165.28 points (2.63%) at 43,091.87 on the 12th, with turnover of NT$1.013294 trillion; TSMC and Delta Electronics both fell NT$55, while Nan Ya PCB and Kinsus hit limit-down. The Taiwan stock market had just surged 4,555.51 points over the previous three trading sessions. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 412.16 points (0.67%) the same day to 60,836.43; South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.18%.
Regarding the Alice Huang case, Chiu Chui-cheng, chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), said on the 12th that Alice Huang visited Taiwan eight times in 2024 and 2025 and at the time "had no special flags"; if relevant key intelligence emerges, she would certainly be flagged as a subject for enhanced scrutiny.
It is worth noting that the two types of betting markets have different time horizons: the departure market focuses on whether a departure will be announced before December 31, 2026, while the successor market extends to the end of 2028. Moreover, the successor market's trading volume is only about $59,900 (approximately NT$2 million), far below the departure market, so a small number of trades can cause large swings in probability—Cook's odds collapsing from 91% back to 10% within a single day being a prime example.
For investors, the core variable in this storm remains the board's decision, not betting market prices. Nvidia has been led by Jensen Huang since its founding in 1993, and the company has no known succession plan; once the board decides to replace him, this key player in the AI industry will face its first power transition in more than three decades, and Taiwan's supply chain is watching developments closely.
