Washington:
US President Donald Trump took America to war in the Middle East, chasing regime change in Iran. Eight months on, voters paying more for groceries and gas and blaming his war of choice have stripped his party of much of its power in Washington and in states across the country.
The shift of the American Congress's control into Democrats' hands after US midterms has left a weakened Trump facing a tough choice between negotiating an exit from Iran or risking an escalation against Tehran. Now, officials across the Gulf are left wondering which way Trump would turn.
"Iran succeeded in regime change in America," a source close to a US Gulf ally told news agency Reuters in the first reaction after the midterm results.
They said officials in the Gulf states were stunned into silence by the scale of the Democratic sweep in US midterm elections.
The war that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 spread across the region as Tehran fired missiles and drones at Gulf targets and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy supplies. The US-Israeli campaign badly damaged Iran's military capabilities but failed to deliver a decisive outcome, leaving the issue of Iran's nuclear programme unresolved.
Incentive To Seek A Deal
Trump is standing on wobbly footing in Congress, with Democrats having the power to constrain his military options. This leaves the Republicans with greater incentive to seek a deal, Reuters reported, quoting two sources close to Gulf government circles.
They believe that a full-scale assault on Iran is now less likely. Further limited strikes on nuclear facilities may offer the US a way to claim its objectives had been met and draw a line under the conflict, as China steps up efforts to broker a settlement.
Yet an agreement that allows Iran to claim clear victory and leaves Trump looking defeated can provoke recklessness as readily as restraint, Gulf analysts said.
The Threat Of Escalation
Going back to war would be a highly unpopular choice for Trump, as it would keep the gas prices high and probably not yield a better military result either. But if Iranian officials refuse to make concessions or, sensing weakness after the president's political loss, raise their demands, Trump will have a hard time reaching a deal, according to an Axios report.
Trump could also try to strike with the status quo -- the naval blockade coupled with crippling economic sanctions that leave the Iranian regime to "rot" -- while continuing to test its appetite for a deal. This path, however, could take months to show progress.
But with the midterms behind him and no third term ahead, the electoral considerations that once encouraged restraint have diminished. That leaves Trump with less to lose and a legacy to secure.
Trump may see confrontation with Iran as a chance to "finish the job" before leaving office, according to Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Centre.
"If Iran continues to resist ... and emerges claiming victory, Trump may feel compelled to act to prevent that outcome and claim a clear success for his presidency."
Lebanese political commentator Sarkis Naoum said Trump's defeat had weakened his hand with Iran, leaving him with diminished leverage at the negotiating table and fewer options to secure a deal.
An official from Iran-backed Hezbollah said the threat of war had not necessarily receded and that "reckless moves" remained a possibility.
"At this moment, the chances of escalation and de-escalation may be equal," he said.
Risk Of Miscalculation
The rebuke from the US electorate came a week after Israeli voters delivered their own blow to the war's other architect, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His right-wing bloc won 53 of the Knesset's 120 seats in the October 27 election, eight short of a majority, leaving him fighting to retain power.
Two beleaguered leaders, each with his political future increasingly tied to the war's outcome, may come to see escalation not as a risk but as a way out of their political predicament. Such a calculation may be irrational but no less dangerous.
"The US election results make a settlement more urgent for Trump but no easier for Iran," Ebtesam al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Centre in Abu Dhabi, told Reuters.
Much hinges, she said, on how Tehran reads the moment. "If Tehran recognises that Trump needs a deal, but not just any deal, a genuine opportunity could emerge to end the war. But if it interprets the results as evidence that American resolve has weakened, it could instead encourage him to launch a new military escalation."
What Gulf Wants
Gulf states want the election to open a path to ending the war, but not at any cost, al-Ketbi said. Any settlement that disregards freedom of navigation through Hormuz, allows Iran to impose tolls or political conditions on shipping, or leaves Gulf states exposed to military threats would be a temporary arrangement that lays the groundwork for another crisis.
In Tehran, leaders savoured Trump's humiliation but did not lower their guard, with Iran's chief negotiator hailing a "NO TO WAR" result.
Two senior Iranian sources said Tehran remained on high alert, fearing Trump could try to make up for his defeat with a military strike. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned against "even the slightest inclination towards submission", a signal that Iran has no intention of softening its demands over the Strait of Hormuz.
Emirati political analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdulla argued that the greater danger now stems from Iran, rather than the US or Israel. Iran's leaders, he said, have long been "arrogant", overestimating their own strength and underestimating American and Israeli military power. That mindset persists, he said, providing ample reason not to rule out another bout of fighting.
"The Iranians have more today to brag about. If anyone drags us into another war, it won't be Netanyahu, it won't be Trump, but the guys in Tehran. They might grossly miscalculate that Trump is weak and Netanyahu is finished and up the ante."
