Indian equities enter Samvat 2083 against a challenging global backdrop, but resilient domestic economic growth and an expected recovery in corporate earnings offer reasons for optimism, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
The brokerage believes FY27 could mark a return to double-digit earnings growth, with Nifty50 earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise 16 percent year-on-year, followed by 14 percent growth in FY28. This would mark a significant improvement from the modest 5 percent growth estimated for FY26.
The previous Samvat was challenging for investors, with the Nifty50 declining around 12 percent until October 29, weighed down by the West Asia conflict, crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, a weaker rupee and sustained foreign investor selling. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled out around $28 billion between January and September 2026.
However, the brokerage believes the underlying domestic fundamentals remain relatively strong. India's GDP grew 7.8 percent in the first quarter of FY27, while record systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows helped domestic investors absorb significant foreign selling.
Motilal Oswal also sees valuations becoming more comfortable following the market correction. The Nifty is trading at 17.5 times forward earnings, around 16 percent below its long-term average. Midcap valuations are also about 6 percent below their historical average, although smallcaps continue to command a 25 percent premium, warranting greater caution in that segment.
Against this backdrop, the brokerage recommends a selective approach to investing rather than taking broad-based exposure across the market.
Among the key factors to monitor in Samvat 2083 are the trajectory of crude oil prices, the RBI's interest rate decisions, foreign investor flows, progress on trade agreements and the pace of corporate earnings growth.
Motilal Oswal believes the combination of improving earnings visibility, relatively attractive large-cap valuations and resilient domestic demand could create investment opportunities in the new Samvat, provided investors remain selective in their stock choices.
